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Currentwinners
This article contains information and factual statistics on past winners and top three finalists, and is intended as a source on how to predict the next winner of RuPaul's Drag Race and its international spinoff to be crowned "America's Next Drag Superstar".

How To Win

Based on statistical facts, contestants wishing to win "RuPaul's Drag Race" should attempt to accomplish the following to increase their chances of winning:

  • Win the very first Main Challenge of the season OR win a Main Challenge within the first 3 weeks of competition;
  • Win three or more Main Challenges and be the first to do so;
  • Do well in the Snatch Game (but not necessarily win the challenge);
  • Never place into the Bottom 2 (or if you do, not until at least the 5th week of competition AND not more than once);
  • Win at least one mini-challenge.

Winners' Stats

Contestant Photo Season Won Maxi Challenges Bottom 2 Mini Challenges Won Times as Team Captain Important Challenge Placements
Number Won Weeks Times in BTM2 Weeks Snatch Game Ball Make Over
Bebe Zahara Benet Tumblr mb8kfjslxD1r1emlm 1 2 3 & 6 1 5 0 0 N/A[1] WIN BTM2
Tyra Sanchez Tumblr mb8ljy0thf1r1emlm 2 3 3, 5, & 9 0 N/A 1 0 SAFE HIGH WIN
Raja Raja-mug 3 3 1, 6, & 9 1 11 2 0 HIGH HIGH[2] BTM2
Sharon Needles Sharonmug 4 4 1, 3, 9, & 11 1 8 1 0 HIGH WIN LOW
Chad Michaels All stars Chad AS1 3 3, 4, & 5 1 1 0 0 HIGH[3] N/A[4] WIN
Jinkx Monsoon Jinx 5 2 5 & 9 1 11 1 1 WIN BTM2 HIGH
Bianca Del Rio Bianca 6 3 2, 8, & 10 0 N/A 1 0 HIGH HIGH WIN
Violet Chachki Violet 7 3 1, 10, & 11 0 N/A 1 0 SAFE WIN HIGH
Bob The Drag Queen BobCastMug 8 3 3, 5, & 7 1 8 1 0 WIN BTM2 SAFE
Alaska AlaskaMugAS2 AS2 4 2, 4, 5, & 6 1 7 2 0 WIN N/A[4] BTM3
Sasha Velour SashaVelourMug 9 2 4 & 9 0 N/A 1 0 HIGH HIGH HIGH
Trixie Mattel Trixeas3 AS3 2 5 & 7 2 4 & 6 0 0 BTM3 TOP2 N/A[5]
Aquaria Aquaria S10 10 3 4, 7, & 11 0 N/A 2 0 WIN WIN LOW
Monét X Change MonetAS4CastMug AS4 3 2, 5, & 8 2 4 & 9 0 0 SAFE N/A[4] TOP2
Trinity The Tuck TrinityAS4CastMug AS4 4 1, 3, 7, & 9 1 5 0 1 TOP2 N/A[4] HIGH
Yvie Oddly YvieCastMug 11 1 2 1 8 0 0 BTM2 HIGH LOW
The Vivienne TheVivienneCastMug UK1 3 1, 4, & 6 1 5 0 1 WIN N/A[4] HIGH
Jaida Essence Hall JaidaCastMug 12 3 2, 9, & 10 1 11 0 1 SAFE HIGH WIN
Shea Couleé SheaAS5Mug AS5 2 2 & 5 3 3, 6 & 7 0 1 WIN HIGH
+
BTM4
N/A[4]

Runners-Up Stats

Contestant Photo Season Maxi Challenges Bottom 2 Mini Challenges Won Times as Team
Captain
Important Challenge Placements
Competed Placement Number Won Weeks Times in BTM2 Weeks Snatch Game Ball Make Over
Nina Flowers Tumblr mb8kgzfKkA1r1emlm 1 2nd 1 1 0 N/A 1 0 N/A[1] HIGH LOW
Raven Tumblr mb8lfh5oHA1r1emlm 2 2nd 2 7 2 2 3 0 SAFE HIGH WIN
Manila Luzon Manila-mug 3 2nd 3 5 1 7 3 1 SAFE HIGH WIN
WIN[2]
Chad Michaels Chad 4

2nd/3rd

2 2 1 11 1 0 WIN BTM2 HIGH
Phi Phi O'Hara PhiPhi 4 2nd/3rd 2 7 1 8 3 1 LOW HIGH WIN
Raven All stars Raven AS1 2nd 0 N/A 2 3 2 0 LOW[3] N/A[4] BTM2
Alaska Alaska 5 2nd/3rd 2 8 0 N/A 4 1 HIGH WIN LOW
Roxxxy Andrews Andrews 5 2nd/3rd 2 1 1 7 1 0 HIGH HIGH WIN
Adore Delano Adore 6 2nd/3rd 3 6 2 8 2 2 HIGH WIN BTM2
Courtney Act Courtney 6 2nd/3rd 2 3 0 N/A 0 0 SAFE LOW LOW
Ginger Minj Ginger 7 2nd/3rd 3 2 2 8 3 1 WIN HIGH BTM2
Pearl Pearl 7 2nd/3rd 2 5 2 4 0 0 SAFE HIGH WIN
Kim Chi KimChiCastMug 8 2nd/3rd 2 1 0 N/A 0 0 SAFE WIN HIGH
Naomi Smalls NaomiCastMug 8 2nd/3rd 1 6 1 5 1 1 BTM2 HIGH WIN
Detox DetoxMugAS2 AS2 2nd/3rd 3 3 1 2 0 0 BTM3 N/A[4] WIN
Katya KatyaMugAS2 AS2 2nd/3rd 2 2 2 3 0 0 TOP2 N/A[4] TOP2
Peppermint PeppermintMug 9 2nd 1 8 2 6 0 0 BTM2 BTM2 SAFE
Kennedy Davenport KennedyAs3Mug AS3 2nd 1 3 4 2 0 0 BTM3 SAFE N/A[5]
Eureka Eureka S10 10 2nd/3rd 2 5 2 2 2 0 HIGH SAFE HIGH
Kameron Michaels Kameron S10 10 2nd/3rd 1 8 3 9 0 0 SAFE HIGH BTM2
Monique Heart MoniqueAS4CastMug AS4 3rd/4th 3 1 2 2 0 0 SAFE N/A[4] HIGH
Naomi Smalls NaomiAS4CastMug AS4 3rd/4th 1 8 3 5 0 0 HIGH N/A[4] WIN
Brooke Lynn Hytes BrookeCastMug 11 2nd 3 1 2 8 3 1 BTM2 WIN WIN
Divina De Campo DivinaCastMug UK1 2nd 3 3 0 N/A 2 0 LOW N/A[4] WIN
Crystal Methyd CrystalMethydCastMug 12 2nd/3rd 1 11 1 12 0 0 LOW SAFE HIGH
Gigi Goode GigiCastMug 12 2nd/3rd 4 4 0 N/A 3 0 WIN WIN SAFE
Jujubee JujubeeAS5Mug AS5 2nd/3rd 1 3 3 5, 6 & 7 1 0 HIGH
+
BTM5
HIGH
+
BTM4
N/A[4]
Miz Cracker CrackerAS5Mug AS5 2nd/3rd 3 4, 6 & 7 1 5 0 1 LOW
+
BTM5
WIN N/A[4]

Statistics Table

Statistics
Accomplishment Chance of Not Placing in Top 3 Chance of Placing in Top 3 Chance of Becoming a Runner-Up Overall Chance of Placing as Runner-up Once in Top 3 Chance of Winning Once in Top 3 Chance of Winning the Entire Season Overall
Never Placing in Bottom 2 0/8 (0%) 8/8

(100%)

5/8 (63%) 5/8 (63%) 3/8 3/8
Placing Once in Bottom 2 & Not Being Eliminated 0/10 (0%) 10/10 (100%) 5/10 (50%) 5/10 (50%) 5/10 (50%) 5/10 (50%)
Placing Twice in Bottom 2 & Not Being Eliminated 0/5 (0%) 5/5 (100%) 5/5 (100%) 5/5 (100%) 0/5 (0%) 0/5 (0%)
Placing Three Times in Bottom 2 & Not Being Eliminated 0/2 (0%) 2/2 (100%) 2/2 (100%) 2/2 (100%) 0/2 (0%) 0/2 (0%)
Winning the 1st Main Challenge of the Season 2/9 (22%) 7/9 (78%) 3/9 (33%) 3/7 (43%) 4/7 (57%) 4/9 (44%)
Winning no Main Challenges 51/52 (98%) 1/52 (2%) 1/52 (2%) 1/1 (100%) 0/1 (0%) 0/52 (0%)
Winning only 1 Main Challenge 19/22 (86%) 3/22 (11%) 3/22 (11%) 3/3 (100%) 0/3 (0%) 0/22 (0%)
Winning 2 Main Challenges 7/17 (41%) 10/17 (59%) 8/17 (47%) 8/10 (80%) 2/10 (20%) 2/17 (12%)
Winning 3 Main Challenges 0/9 (0%) 9/9 (100%) 4/9 (44%) 4/9 (44%) 5/9 (56%) 5/9 (56%)
Winning 4 Main Challenges 0/2 (0%) 2/2 (100%) 1/2 (50%) 1/2 (50%) 1/2 (50%) 1/2 (50%)
Being The 1st To Win 2 Main Challenges 3/8 (38%) 5/8 (62%) 1/8 (12%) 1/5 (20%) 4/5 (80%) 4/8 (50%)
Winning The Snatch Game 4/8 (50%) 4/8 (50%) 2/8 (25%) 2/4 (50%) 2/4 (50%) 2/8 (25%)
Winning Team Captain 28/36 (78%) 8/36 (22%) 7/36 (19%) 7/8 (88%) 1/8 (12%) 1/36 (3%)

Placing in the Bottom Two

Oddly, to place as a top 3 finalist, a contestant has a better chance if they have 0 to 1 bottom two placings, yet to win the competition, a contestant has a better chance if they have only one bottom 2 placing. No contestant has ever won the entire season with more than one bottom 2 placing (excluding all stars).

Never Placing in the Bottom 2

Historically, every contestant to have never once placed in the bottom 2 on any episode has gone on to place as a top 3 finalist. Nina Flowers of Season 1, Tyra Sanchez of Season 2, Alaska of Season 5, Courtney Act & Bianca Del Rio of Season 6, Violet Chachki of Season 7, Kim Chi of Season 8, Sasha Velour of Season 9, Aquaria of Season 10, Divina De Campo of UK Season 1 and Gigi Goode of Season 12 have all accomplished this feat, with Tyra Sanchez, Bianca Del Rio, Violet Chachki, Sasha Velour and Aquaria to be the only Season Winners to have done so. Never placing in the bottom 2 guarantees a contestant a spot in the top 3. Based on this statistic alone, a contestant with zero Bottom 2 placings has a 5/9 chance of winning the crown, and a 4/9 chance of placing into the Top 3 without winning the title.

Placing Once in the Bottom 2

Aside from Tyra Sanchez, Bianca Del Rio, Violet Chachki, Sasha Velour and Aquaria who won their seasons without ever once placing in the Bottom 2 during any episode, every other Season Winner has placed in the Bottom 2 at least once. Although it is possible to win the competition with one Bottom 2 placing, or even place as a Top 3 finalist with two Bottom 2 placings, no contestant has ever won the competition with 2 or more bottom 2 placings. Any contestant to have placed in the Bottom 2 two or more times has an a 0% chance of winning the season.

Placing Twice in the Bottom 2

Rebecca Glasscock of Season 1, Raven of Season 2, Adore Delano of Season 6, Ginger Minj & Pearl of Season 7, Peppermint of Season 9 and Eureka O'Hara of Season 10 are the only contestants to place in the top 3 with two Bottom 2 placings each. Trixie Mattel, winner of All Stars 3 and Monet X Change, winner of All Stars 4 are the only winners with two Bottom 2 placings as of now. Although it is possible to place as a top 3 finalist with two Bottom 2 placings, the chances of winning the competition are very very very low.

Placing 3 Times in the Bottom 2

Jujubee of Season 2, Alexis Mateo of Season 3 & Kameron Michaels of Season 10 are the only three contestants ever to place in the top 3 with a total of three bottom 2 placings each. Both contestants ranked 3rd in the competition. Having three bottom 2 placings puts the chances of winning the season at 0%.

Winning Main Challenges

Statistically, in order to win the entire season, a contestant must win at least 2 main challenges. However winning the most main challenges over every other contestant does not guarantee that a contestant will win the entire season.

Winning the 1st Main Challenge

With the exception of Morgan McMichaels of Season 2, BenDeLaCreme of Season 6, Nina Bo'Nina Brown of Season 9, Mayhem Miller of Season 10, and Widow Von'Du of Season 12, every contestant who's won the very first main challenge of their season has gone on to place in the top 3. Season winners Raja, Sharon Needles, Bianca Del Rio, Violet Chachki, and Jaida Essence Hall all won the first main challenges of their season (Bianca and Jaida being the first winners on the first episodes they appeared on). Based on this statistic alone, a contestant who has won the first main challenge of their season has a strong chance of winning the season with a 4/9 chance of winning the competition and a 6/9 chance of at least placing in the top 3.

Winning No Main Challenges

So far, Jujubee of Season 2 is the only contestant in Drag Race history to place as a top 3 finalist without winning a single main challenge. This is a very rare achievement which so far has never been duplicated. Although not impossible, the chances of placing in the top 3 without winning a main challenge are very low, while the chances of winning the season are zero.

Winning 1 Main Challenge

With the exception of finalists Nina Flowers, & Rebecca Glasscock from Season 1, Jujubee from Season 2, Naomi Smalls from Season 8, Peppermint of Season 9, Kameron Michaels of Season 10, and Crystal Methyd of Season 12, every top 3 finalist has won at least 2 main challenges. Winning only one Main Challenge means a contestant has a 2/24 chance of placing as a finalist and a 0% chance of winning the crown.

Winning 2 Main Challenges

Every single Season winner with the exception of Yvie Oddly in Drag Race history so far has won at least 2 Main Challenges (Raja, Bianca Del Rio, Violet Chachki, Bob The Drag Queen, Aquaria and Jaida Essence Hall have each won 3, while Sharon Needles and Alaska have won 4), meaning that in order to win the entire season, a contestant statistically needs to have won at least 2 main challenges.

With the exception of Shangela of Season 3, Latrice Royale of Season 4, BenDeLaCreme of Season 6, Max, Kennedy Davenport, and Katya of Season 7, most contestants who've won 2 main challenges have gone to place in the top 3. With the exception of Nina Flowers, Rebecca Glasscock, Naomi Smalls, Peppermint and Kameron Michaels who won only one Main Challenge, and Jujubee - who won no main challenges, every top 3 finalist afterwards has won at least 2 main challenges. Out of eight Season Winners, three have won with only two Main Challenge wins, making it a 3/8 chance that the winner will have had only 2 Main Challenge wins.

Winning 3 Main Challenges

So far, every single contestant who has won 3 main challenges has gone on to place as a top 3 finalist. Out of all twelve Season Winners so far, six of them where crowned after winning three Main Challenges (Tyra Sanchez, Raja, Bianca Del Rio, Violet Chachki, Bob The Drag Queen, Aquaria, The Vivienne and Jaida Essence Hall). Sharon Needles is the only Season winner to have won more than three with four main challenge wins. Due to these statistics, any contestant who's won 3 main challenges is guaranteed a spot in the top 3, and has a 1/2 chance of being crowned "America's Next Drag Superstar".

Winning the "Snatch Game" Challenge

So far, four season winners won the Snatch Game Challenge: Jinkx Monsoon of Season 5, Bob The Drag Queen from Season 8, Aquaria of Season 10, and The Vivienne of UK Season 1, while Chad Michaels of Season 4, Ginger Minj of Season 7, Silky Nutmeg Ganache of Season 11, Baga Chipz of UK Season 1, and Gigi Goode of Season 12 are the only Snatch Game winners to place in the top 3 without winning the crown. Other Snatch Game winners such as Tatianna, Stacy Layne Matthews, BenDeLaCreme, Kennedy Davenport, and Alexis Michelle did not even crack the top 3, making a 2/9 chance that a Snatch Game winner will take the crown. Oddly, with the exception of Pandora Boxx of Season 2, Willam of Season 4, Katya of Season 7, Derrick Barry and Thorgy Thor of Season 8, Nina Bo'Nina Brown of Season 9, Monét X Change of Season 10, Nina West and Shuga Cain of Season 11, Blu Hydrangea of UK Season 1 and Jackie Cox of Season 12, most contestants who did very well during the Snatch Game without actually winning the challenge have made it into the top 3. Winning the Snatch Game gives a queen a 1/2 chance of making the top 3. Based on these statistics, although winning the Snatch Game is not a good indication for winning the entire season, doing well in the Snatch Game without winning the challenge is a very good indication that a contestant will go far in the competition and may even place in the top 3.

Winning Mini-Challenges

Most Season winners have won at least one mini-challenge but no season winner has won more than two mini-challenges. Although winning a mini-challenge is meant to give a contestant an advantage during the main challenge, historically, it usually instead has an adverse effect, with many mini-challenge winners and team captains placing in the bottom 2 on the same episode where they won the mini-challenge due to the added responsibility of managing their group.


Winning The Role of Team Captain

So far, Jinkx Monsoon, The Vivienne, Trinity The Tuck, and Jaida Essence Hall are the only season winners to have been Team Captain. In general, winning the role of Team Captain is not favorable for winning the title of "America's Next Drag Superstar".

References

  1. 1.0 1.1 This season had no Snatch Game
  2. 2.0 2.1 This season had 2 Ball challenges, and Raja placed high in both.
  3. 3.0 3.1 RuPaul's Gaff-In replaced Snatch Game
  4. 4.00 4.01 4.02 4.03 4.04 4.05 4.06 4.07 4.08 4.09 4.10 4.11 4.12 4.13 This season had no Ball challenge
  5. 5.0 5.1 This season had no Make-Over challenge

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