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This article contains information and factual statistics on past winners and top three finalists, and is intended as a source on how to predict the next winner of RuPaul's Drag Race and its international spinoff to be crowned "America's Next Drag Superstar".

How To Win

Based on statistical facts, contestants wishing to win "RuPaul's Drag Race" should attempt to accomplish the following to increase their chances of winning:

  • Win the very first Main Challenge of the season OR win a Main Challenge within the first 3 weeks of competition;
  • Win three or more Main Challenges and be the first to do so;
  • Do well in the Snatch Game (but not necessarily win the challenge);
  • Never place into the Bottom 2 (or if you do, not until at least the 5th week of competition).

Winners' Stats

Contestant Photo Season Won Maxi Challenges Bottom 2 Mini Chall. Won Times as Team Captain Important Challenge Placements
Number Won Weeks Times in BTM2 Weeks Design Challenge Snatch
Game
Ball Make
Over
Lip Sync
Extravaganza
Bebe Zahara Benet Tumblr mb8kfjslxD1r1emlm.png 1 2 3, 6 1 5 0 0 SAFE N/A WIN BTM2 SAFE
Tyra Sanchez Tumblr mb8ljy0thf1r1emlm.png 2 3 3, 5, 9 0 N/A 1 0 HIGH

WIN

SAFE HIGH WIN N/A
Raja Raja-mug.jpeg 3 3 1, 6, 9 1 11 2 0 WIN HIGH HIGH BTM2 N/A
WIN HIGH
Sharon Needles Sharonmug.jpg 4 4 1, 3, 9, 11 1 8 1 0 WIN HIGH WIN LOW N/A
Chad Michaels All stars Chad.png AS1 3 3, 4, 5 1 1 0 0 N/A HIGH WIN WIN N/A
Jinkx Monsoon Jinx.png 5 2 5, 9 1 11 1 1 SAFE WIN BTM2 HIGH N/A
Bianca Del Rio Bianca.png 6 3 2, 8, 10 0 N/A 1 0 WIN HIGH HIGH WIN HIGH
Violet Chachki Violet.png 7 3 1, 10, 11 0 N/A 1 0 WIN SAFE WIN HIGH HIGH
Bob The Drag Queen BobCastMug.jpg 8 3 3, 5, 7 1 8 1 0 SAFE WIN BTM2 SAFE SAFE
Alaska AlaskaMugAS2.jpg AS2 4 2, 4, 5, 6 1 7 2 0 N/A WIN N/A BTM3 SAFE
Sasha Velour SashaVelourMug.jpeg 9 2 4, 9 0 N/A 1 0 SAFE HIGH HIGH HIGH SAFE
Trixie Mattel Trixeas3.jpg AS3 2 5, 7 2 4, 6 0 0 N/A BTM3 TOP2 N/A SAFE
Natalia Pliacam Natalia queenmug.png DRT1 3 2, 4, 5 1 4 1 0 WIN N/A N/A N/A
Aquaria Aquaria S10.jpg 10 3 4, 7, 11 0 N/A 2 0 SAFE WIN WIN LOW SAFE
Monét X Change MonetAS4CastMug.jpg AS4 3 2, 5, 8 2 4, 9 0 0 HIGH SAFE N/A TOP2 N/A
Trinity The Tuck TrinityAS4CastMug.jpg AS4 4 1, 3, 7, 9 1 5 0 1 TOP2 TOP2 N/A HIGH N/A
Angele Anang AngeleAnangMug.png DRT2 6 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 2 9, 11 1 0 WIN N/A WIN N/A
HIGH
Yvie Oddly YvieCastMug.jpg 11 1 2 1 8 0 0 SAFE BTM2 HIGH LOW HIGH
The Vivienne TheVivienneCastMug.jpg UK1 3 1, 4, 6 1 5 0 1 HIGH WIN N/A HIGH
Jaida Essence Hall JaidaCastMug.jpg 12 3 2, 9, 10 1 11 0 1 N/A SAFE HIGH WIN SAFE
Shea Couleé SheaAS5Mug.png AS5 2 2, 5 3 3, 6, 7 0 1 BTM3 WIN HIGH N/A
Priyanka PriyankaCastMug.jpeg CDR1 2 3, 8 2 5, 7 1 1 SAFE BTM2 SAFE WIN
Envy Peru EnvyCastMug.jpg DRH1 4 2, 4, 5, 6 0 N/A 2 1 WIN N/A WIN SAFE

Runners-Up Stats

Contestant Photo Season
(Placem.)
Maxi Challenges Bottom 2 Mini Chall. Won Times as Team
Captain
Important Challenge Placements
Number Won Weeks Times in BTM2 Weeks Design Challenge Snatch
Game
Ball Make
Over
Lip Sync Extravaganza
Nina Flowers Tumblr mb8kgzfKkA1r1emlm.png 1
(2nd)
1 1 0 N/A 1 0 WIN N/A HIGH LOW HIGH TEAM
Raven Tumblr mb8lfh5oHA1r1emlm.png 2
(2nd)
2 7, 8 2 2, 3 3 0 SAFE

HIGH

SAFE HIGH WIN N/A
Manila Luzon Manila-mug.jpeg 3
(2nd)
3 5, 12, 13 1 7 3 1 HIGH SAFE HIGH WIN N/A
HIGH WIN
Chad Michaels Chad.png 4
(2nd/3rd)
2 2, 5 1 11 1 0 SAFE

SAFE

WIN BTM2 HIGH N/A
Phi Phi O'Hara PhiPhi.png 2 7, 10 1 8 3 1 SAFE

HIGH

LOW HIGH WIN N/A
Raven All stars Raven.png AS1
(2nd)
0 N/A 3 3, 4, 5 2 0 N/A LOW BTM2 BTM2 N/A
Alaska Alaska.png 5
(2nd/3rd)
2 8, 11 0 N/A 4 1 HIGH HIGH WIN LOW N/A
Roxxxy Andrews Andrews.png 2 1, 10 1 7 1 0 WIN HIGH HIGH WIN N/A
Adore Delano Adore.png 6
(2nd/3rd)
3 6, 7, 11 2 9, 10 2 2 LOW HIGH WIN BTM2 HIGH
Courtney Act Courtney.png 2 3, 9 0 N/A 0 0 SAFE SAFE LOW SAFE WIN
Ginger Minj Ginger.png 7
(2nd/3rd)
3 2, 7, 9 2 8, 10 3 1 SAFE WIN HIGH BTM2 WIN
Pearl Pearl.png 2 5, 8 2 4, 9 0 0 SAFE SAFE HIGH WIN SAFE
Kim Chi KimChiCastMug.jpeg 8
(2nd/3rd)
2 1, 8 0 N/A 0 0 WIN SAFE WIN HIGH LOW
Naomi Smalls NaomiCastMug.jpg 1 6 1 5 1 1 LOW BTM2 HIGH WIN SAFE
Detox DetoxMugAS2.jpg AS2
(2nd/3rd)
3 3, 5, 7 1 2 0 0 N/A BTM3 N/A WIN TOP2
Katya KatyaMugAS2.jpg 3 2, 6, 7 2 3, 4 0 0 N/A TOP2 N/A TOP2 BTM2
Peppermint PeppermintMug.jpeg 9
(2nd)
1 8 2 6, 11 0 0 HIGH BTM2 BTM2 SAFE HIGH
Kennedy Davenport KennedyAs3Mug.jpg AS3
(2nd)
1 3 4 2, 4, 6, 7 0 0 N/A BTM3 SAFE N/A BTM2
Année Maywong Annee queenmug.png DRT1
(2nd/3rd)
3 1, 3, 7 1 5 1 0 BTM3 N/A N/A
Dearis Doll Dearis queenmug.png 2 4, 6 2 3, 7 2 0 SAFE N/A N/A
Eureka Eureka S10.jpg 10
(2nd/3rd)
2 5, 6 2 2, 9 2 0 SAFE HIGH SAFE HIGH SAFE
Kameron Michaels Kameron S10.jpg 1 8 3 9, 10, 11 0 0 SAFE SAFE HIGH BTM2 WIN
Monique Heart MoniqueAS4CastMug.jpg AS4
(3rd/4th)
3 1, 4, 9 2 2, 5 0 0 SAFE SAFE N/A HIGH N/A
Naomi Smalls NaomiAS4CastMug.jpg 1 8 3 5, 7, 9 0 0 BTM2 HIGH N/A WIN N/A
Kana Warrior KanaWarriorMug.png DRT2
(2nd/3rd)
2 10, 11 4 3, 4, 5, 9 0 0 N/A N/A BTM3 N/A
HIGH
Kandy Zyanide KandyZyanideMug.png 3 9, 10, 11 1 4 1 0 N/A N/A ELIM WIN
WIN
Brooke Lynn Hytes BrookeCastMug.jpg 11
(2nd)
3 1, 5, 11 2 8, 12 3 1 WIN BTM2 WIN WIN HIGH
Divina De Campo DivinaCastMug.jpg UK1
(2nd)
3 3, 5, 7 0 N/A 2 0 WIN LOW N/A WIN N/A
Crystal Methyd CrystalMethydCastMug.jpg 12
(2nd/3rd)
1 11 1 12 0 0 N/A LOW SAFE HIGH HIGH
Gigi Goode GigiCastMug.jpg 4 4, 6, 7, 12 0 N/A 3 0 N/A WIN WIN SAFE WIN
Jujubee JujubeeAS5Mug.png AS5
(2nd/3rd)
1 3 3 5, 6, 7 1 0 WIN HIGH HIGH N/A N/A
Miz Cracker MizAS5Mug.png 3 4, 6, 7 1 5 0 1 SAFE LOW TOP N/A N/A
Rita Baga RitaCastMug.jpeg CDR1
(2nd/3rd)
3 1, 4, 6 2 8, 9 0 0 WIN

WIN

HIGH BTM2 BTM2 N/A
Scarlett BoBo ScarletBoboCastMug.jpeg 1 9 0 N/A 1 0 SAFE

HIGH

SAFE WIN HIGH N/A
Janey Jacké JaneyCastMug.jpg DRH1
(2nd)
2 1, 7 1 6 1 0 HIGH N/A BTM2 N/A

Statistics Table

Statistics
Accomplishment Chance of Not Placing in Top 3 Chance of Placing in Top 3 Chance of Becoming a Runner-Up Overall Chance of Placing as Runner-up Once in Top 3 Chance of Winning Once in Top 3 Chance of Winning the Entire Season Overall
Never Placing in Bottom 2 0/8 (0%) 8/8

(100%)

5/8 (63%) 5/8 (63%) 3/8 3/8
Placing Once in Bottom 2 & Not Being Eliminated 0/10 (0%) 10/10 (100%) 5/10 (50%) 5/10 (50%) 5/10 (50%) 5/10 (50%)
Placing Twice in Bottom 2 & Not Being Eliminated 0/5 (0%) 5/5 (100%) 5/5 (100%) 5/5 (100%) 0/5 (0%) 0/5 (0%)
Placing Three Times in Bottom 2 & Not Being Eliminated 0/2 (0%) 2/2 (100%) 2/2 (100%) 2/2 (100%) 0/2 (0%) 0/2 (0%)
Winning the 1st Main Challenge of the Season 2/9 (22%) 7/9 (78%) 3/9 (33%) 3/7 (43%) 4/7 (57%) 4/9 (44%)
Winning no Main Challenges 51/52 (98%) 1/52 (2%) 1/52 (2%) 1/1 (100%) 0/1 (0%) 0/52 (0%)
Winning only 1 Main Challenge 19/22 (86%) 3/22 (11%) 3/22 (11%) 3/3 (100%) 0/3 (0%) 0/22 (0%)
Winning 2 Main Challenges 7/17 (41%) 10/17 (59%) 8/17 (47%) 8/10 (80%) 2/10 (20%) 2/17 (12%)
Winning 3 Main Challenges 0/9 (0%) 9/9 (100%) 4/9 (44%) 4/9 (44%) 5/9 (56%) 5/9 (56%)
Winning 4 Main Challenges 0/2 (0%) 2/2 (100%) 1/2 (50%) 1/2 (50%) 1/2 (50%) 1/2 (50%)
Being The 1st To Win 2 Main Challenges 3/8 (38%) 5/8 (62%) 1/8 (12%) 1/5 (20%) 4/5 (80%) 4/8 (50%)
Winning The Snatch Game 4/8 (50%) 4/8 (50%) 2/8 (25%) 2/4 (50%) 2/4 (50%) 2/8 (25%)
Winning Team Captain 28/36 (78%) 8/36 (22%) 7/36 (19%) 7/8 (88%) 1/8 (12%) 1/36 (3%)

Placing in the Bottom Two

Oddly, to place as a top 3 finalist, a contestant has a better chance if they have 0 to 1 bottom two placings, yet to win the competition, a contestant has a better chance if they have only one bottom 2 placing. No contestant has ever won the entire season with more than one bottom 2 placing (excluding all stars).

Never Placing in the Bottom 2

Historically, every contestant to have never once placed in the bottom 2 on any episode has gone on to place as a top 3 finalist. Nina Flowers of Season 1, Tyra Sanchez of Season 2, Alaska of Season 5, Courtney Act & Bianca Del Rio of Season 6, Violet Chachki of Season 7, Kim Chi of Season 8, Sasha Velour of Season 9, Aquaria of Season 10, Divina De Campo of UK Season 1 and Gigi Goode of Season 12 have all accomplished this feat, with Tyra Sanchez, Bianca Del Rio, Violet Chachki, Sasha Velour, Aquaria, and Envy Peru to be the only Season Winners to have done so. Never placing in the bottom 2 guarantees a contestant a spot in the top 3. Based on this statistic alone, a contestant with zero Bottom 2 placings has a 5/9 chance of winning the crown, and a 4/9 chance of placing into the Top 3 without winning the title.

Placing Once in the Bottom 2

Aside from Tyra Sanchez, Bianca Del Rio, Violet Chachki, Sasha Velour and Aquaria who won their seasons without ever once placing in the Bottom 2 during any episode, every other Season Winner has placed in the Bottom 2 at least once. Although it is possible to win the competition with one Bottom 2 placing, or even place as a Top 3 finalist with two Bottom 2 placings, no contestant has ever won the competition with 2 or more bottom 2 placings. Any contestant to have placed in the Bottom 2 two or more times has an a 0% chance of winning the season.

Placing Twice in the Bottom 2

Rebecca Glasscock of Season 1, Raven of Season 2, Adore Delano of Season 6, Ginger Minj & Pearl of Season 7, Peppermint of Season 9, Eureka O'Hara of Season 10, and are the only contestants to place in the top 3 with two Bottom 2 placings each. Trixie Mattel, winner of All Stars 3 and Monet X Change, winner of All Stars 4 are the only winners with two Bottom 2 placings as of now. Although it is possible to place as a top 3 finalist with two Bottom 2 placings, the chances of winning the competition are very very very low.

Placing 3 Times in the Bottom 2

Jujubee of Season 2, Alexis Mateo of Season 3 & Kameron Michaels of Season 10 are the only three contestants ever to place in the top 3 with a total of three bottom 2 placings each. Both contestants ranked 3rd in the competition. Having three bottom 2 placings puts the chances of winning the season at 0%.

Winning Main Challenges

Statistically, in order to win the entire season, a contestant must win at least 2 main challenges. However winning the most main challenges over every other contestant does not guarantee that a contestant will win the entire season.

Winning the 1st Main Challenge

With the exception of Morgan McMichaels of Season 2, BenDeLaCreme of Season 6, Nina Bo'Nina Brown of Season 9, Mayhem Miller of Season 10, Widow Von'Du of Season 12, and zevery contestant who's won the very first main challenge of their season has gone on to place in the top 3. Season winners Raja, Sharon Needles, Bianca Del Rio, Violet Chachki, and Jaida Essence Hall all won the first main challenges of their season (Bianca and Jaida being the first winners on the first episodes they appeared on). Based on this statistic alone, a contestant who has won the first main challenge of their season has a strong chance of winning the season with a 4/9 chance of winning the competition and a 6/9 chance of at least placing in the top 3.

Winning No Main Challenges

So far, Jujubee of Season 2 and Miss Abby OMG are the only contestants in Drag Race history to place as a top 3/top 4 finalist without winning a single main challenge. This is a very rare achievement which so far has never been duplicated on the same region's show. Although not impossible, the chances of placing in the top 3 without winning a main challenge are very low, while the chances of winning the season are zero, both having been eliminated by the judges prior to the final lip sync.

Winning 1 Main Challenge

With the exception of finalists Nina Flowers, & Rebecca Glasscock from Season 1, Jujubee from Season 2, Naomi Smalls from Season 8, Peppermint of Season 9, Kameron Michaels of Season 10, Crystal Methyd of Season 12, and Janey Jacké, Miss Abby OMG, and Ma'Ma Queen of Drag Race Holland Season 1, every top 3/top finalist has won at least 2 main challenges. Winning only one Main Challenge means a contestant has a 2/24 chance of placing as a finalist and a 0% chance of winning the crown.

Winning 2 Main Challenges

Every single Season winner with the exception of Yvie Oddly in Drag Race history so far has won at least 2 Main Challenges (Raja, Bianca Del Rio, Violet Chachki, Bob The Drag Queen, Aquaria and Jaida Essence Hall have each won 3, while Sharon Needles and Alaska have won 4), meaning that in order to win the entire season, a contestant statistically needs to have won at least 2 main challenges.

With the exception of Shangela of Season 3, Latrice Royale of Season 4, BenDeLaCreme of Season 6, Max, Kennedy Davenport, and Katya of Season 7, most contestants who've won 2 main challenges have gone to place in the top 3. With the exception of Nina Flowers, Rebecca Glasscock, Naomi Smalls, Peppermint and Kameron Michaels who won only one Main Challenge, and Jujubee - who won no main challenges, every top 3 finalist afterwards has won at least 2 main challenges. Out of eight Season Winners, three have won with only two Main Challenge wins, making it a 3/8 chance that the winner will have had only 2 Main Challenge wins.

Winning 3 Main Challenges

So far, every single contestant who has won 3 main challenges has gone on to place as a top 3 finalist. Out of all twelve Season Winners so far, six of them where crowned after winning three Main Challenges (Tyra Sanchez, Raja, Bianca Del Rio, Violet Chachki, Bob The Drag Queen, Aquaria, The Vivienne and Jaida Essence Hall). Sharon Needles is the only Season winner to have won more than three with four main challenge wins. Due to these statistics, any contestant who's won 3 main challenges is guaranteed a spot in the top 3, and has a 1/2 chance of being crowned "America's Next Drag Superstar".

Winning the "Snatch Game" Challenge

So far, four season winners won the Snatch Game Challenge: Jinkx Monsoon of Season 5, Bob The Drag Queen from Season 8, Aquaria of Season 10, and The Vivienne of UK Season 1, while Chad Michaels of Season 4, Ginger Minj of Season 7, Silky Nutmeg Ganache of Season 11, Baga Chipz of UK Season 1, and Gigi Goode of Season 12 are the only Snatch Game winners to place in the top 3 without winning the crown. Other Snatch Game winners such as Tatianna, Stacy Layne Matthews, BenDeLaCreme, Kennedy Davenport, and Alexis Michelle did not even crack the top 3, making a 2/9 chance that a Snatch Game winner will take the crown. Oddly, with the exception of Pandora Boxx of Season 2, Willam of Season 4, Katya of Season 7, Derrick Barry and Thorgy Thor of Season 8, Nina Bo'Nina Brown of Season 9, Monét X Change of Season 10, Nina West and Shuga Cain of Season 11, Blu Hydrangea of UK Season 1 and Jackie Cox of Season 12, most contestants who did very well during the Snatch Game without actually winning the challenge have made it into the top 3. Winning the Snatch Game gives a queen a 1/2 chance of making the top 3. Based on these statistics, although winning the Snatch Game is not a good indication for winning the entire season, doing well in the Snatch Game without winning the challenge is a very good indication that a contestant will go far in the competition and may even place in the top 3.

Winning Mini-Challenges

Most Season winners have won at least one mini-challenge but no season winner has won more than two mini-challenges. Although winning a mini-challenge is meant to give a contestant an advantage during the main challenge, historically, it usually instead has an adverse effect, with many mini-challenge winners and team captains placing in the bottom 2 on the same episode where they won the mini-challenge due to the added responsibility of managing their group.


Winning The Role of Team Captain

So far, Jinkx Monsoon, The Vivienne, Trinity The Tuck, Jaida Essence Hall, Shea Couleé, Priyanka, and Envy Peru are the only season winners to have been Team Captain. In general, winning the role of Team Captain is not that favorable for winning the title of "America's Next Drag Superstar".

References

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