This article contains information and factual statistics on past winners and top three finalists, and is intended as a source on how to predict the next winner of RuPaul's Drag Race and its international spinoff to be crowned "America's Next Drag Superstar".
- 1 How To Win
- 2 Winners' Stats
- 3 Runners-Up Stats
- 4 Statistics Table
- 5 Placing in the Bottom Two
- 6 Winning Main Challenges
- 7 Winning Mini-Challenges
- 8 References
- 9 Navigation
How To Win
Based on statistical facts, contestants wishing to win "RuPaul's Drag Race" should attempt to accomplish the following to increase their chances of winning:
- Win the very first Main Challenge of the season OR win a Main Challenge within the first 3 weeks of competition;
- Win three or more Main Challenges and be the first to do so;
- Do well in the Snatch Game (but not necessarily win the challenge);
- Never place into the Bottom 2 (or if you do, not until at least the 5th week of competition).
|Contestant||Photo||Season Won||Maxi Challenges||Bottom 2||Mini Chall. Won||Times as Team Captain||Important Challenge Placements|
|Number Won||Weeks||Times in BTM2||Weeks||Design Challenge||Snatch
|Bebe Zahara Benet||1||2||3, 6||1||5||0||0||SAFE||N/A||WIN||BTM2||SAFE|
|Tyra Sanchez||2||3||3, 5, 9||0||N/A||1||0||HIGH
|Raja||3||3||1, 6, 9||1||11||2||0||WIN||HIGH||HIGH||BTM2||N/A|
|Sharon Needles||4||4||1, 3, 9, 11||1||8||1||0||WIN||HIGH||WIN||LOW||N/A|
|Chad Michaels||AS1||3||3, 4, 5||1||1||0||0||N/A||HIGH||WIN||WIN||N/A|
|Jinkx Monsoon||5||2||5, 9||1||11||1||1||SAFE||WIN||BTM2||HIGH||N/A|
|Bianca Del Rio||6||3||2, 8, 10||0||N/A||1||0||WIN||HIGH||HIGH||WIN||HIGH|
|Violet Chachki||7||3||1, 10, 11||0||N/A||1||0||WIN||SAFE||WIN||HIGH||HIGH|
|Bob The Drag Queen||8||3||3, 5, 7||1||8||1||0||SAFE||WIN||BTM2||SAFE||SAFE|
|Alaska||AS2||4||2, 4, 5, 6||1||7||2||0||N/A||WIN||N/A||BTM3||SAFE|
|Sasha Velour||9||2||4, 9||0||N/A||1||0||SAFE||HIGH||HIGH||HIGH||SAFE|
|Trixie Mattel||AS3||2||5, 7||2||4, 6||0||0||N/A||BTM3||TOP2||N/A||SAFE|
|Natalia Pliacam||DRT1||3||2, 4, 5||1||4||1||0||WIN||N/A||N/A||N/A|
|Aquaria||10||3||4, 7, 11||0||N/A||2||0||SAFE||WIN||WIN||LOW||SAFE|
|Monét X Change||AS4||3||2, 5, 8||2||4, 9||0||0||HIGH||SAFE||N/A||TOP2||N/A|
|Trinity The Tuck||AS4||4||1, 3, 7, 9||1||5||0||1||TOP2||TOP2||N/A||HIGH||N/A|
|Angele Anang||DRT2||6||1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8||2||9, 11||1||0||WIN||N/A||WIN||N/A|
|The Vivienne||UK1||3||1, 4, 6||1||5||0||1||HIGH||WIN||N/A||HIGH|
|Jaida Essence Hall||12||3||2, 9, 10||1||11||0||1||N/A||SAFE||HIGH||WIN||SAFE|
|Shea Couleé||AS5||2||2, 5||3||3, 6, 7||0||1||BTM3||WIN||HIGH||N/A|
|Priyanka||CDR1||2||3, 8||2||5, 7||1||1||SAFE||BTM2||SAFE||WIN|
|Envy Peru||DRH1||4||2, 4, 5, 6||0||N/A||2||1||WIN||N/A||WIN||SAFE|
- With the exception of BeBe Zahara Benet, Jinkx Monsoon, Sasha Velour, Trixie Mattel and Yvie Oddly, every Season winner has won at least 3 main challenges.
- With the exception of Raja, Violet Chachki, Monét X Change, Trinity The Tuck and Jaida Essence Hall every season winner who has won at least 3 Main Challenges was the first to do so.
- With the exception of Jinkx Monsoon, Sasha Velour, Trixie Mattel and Aquaria, every season winner won their first main challenge within the first 3 weeks of competition.
- With the exception of Sasha Velour and Yvie Oddly, every regular season winner has at least two solo wins.
- With the exception of Raja, Sasha Velour, and Yvie Oddly, every winner has won at least one of the three important challenges: Snatch Game, the Ball Challenge and the Makeover Challenge.
- With the exception of Trixie Mattel and Yvie Oddly, no winner land in the bottom 2 on Snatch Game.
- With the exception of Trixie Mattel and Monét X Change, no winner has placed in the bottom 2 more than once.
- With the exception of Trixie Mattel and Monét X Change, no season winner who has placed in the bottom 2 did so until at least the 5th week of competition.
- With the exception of Bebe Zahara Benet, Chad Michaels, Trixie Mattel, Monét X Change, Trinity The Tuck, Yvie Oddly and Jaida Essence Hall, every season winner has won at least one mini-challenge (Raja, Alaska, Aquaria, and Envy Peru are the only ones that won two).
- With the exception of Jinkx Monsoon, The Vivienne, Trinity The Tuck, Jaida Essence Hall, and Envy Peru, no season winner has won the role of Team Captain.
- Trixie Mattel is the only winner to not follow any of the 5 criteria.
|Maxi Challenges||Bottom 2||Mini Chall. Won||Times as Team
|Important Challenge Placements|
|Number Won||Weeks||Times in BTM2||Weeks||Design Challenge||Snatch
|Lip Sync Extravaganza|
|2||7, 8||2||2, 3||3||0||SAFE
|3||5, 12, 13||1||7||3||1||HIGH||SAFE||HIGH||WIN||N/A|
|Phi Phi O'Hara||2||7, 10||1||8||3||1||SAFE
|0||N/A||3||3, 4, 5||2||0||N/A||LOW||BTM2||BTM2||N/A|
|Roxxxy Andrews||2||1, 10||1||7||1||0||WIN||HIGH||HIGH||WIN||N/A|
|3||6, 7, 11||2||9, 10||2||2||LOW||HIGH||WIN||BTM2||HIGH|
|Courtney Act||2||3, 9||0||N/A||0||0||SAFE||SAFE||LOW||SAFE||WIN|
|3||2, 7, 9||2||8, 10||3||1||SAFE||WIN||HIGH||BTM2||WIN|
|Pearl||2||5, 8||2||4, 9||0||0||SAFE||SAFE||HIGH||WIN||SAFE|
|3||3, 5, 7||1||2||0||0||N/A||BTM3||N/A||WIN||TOP2|
|Katya||3||2, 6, 7||2||3, 4||0||0||N/A||TOP2||N/A||TOP2||BTM2|
|1||3||4||2, 4, 6, 7||0||0||N/A||BTM3||SAFE||N/A||BTM2|
|3||1, 3, 7||1||5||1||0||BTM3||N/A||N/A|
|Dearis Doll||2||4, 6||2||3, 7||2||0||SAFE||N/A||N/A|
|2||5, 6||2||2, 9||2||0||SAFE||HIGH||SAFE||HIGH||SAFE|
|Kameron Michaels||1||8||3||9, 10, 11||0||0||SAFE||SAFE||HIGH||BTM2||WIN|
|3||1, 4, 9||2||2, 5||0||0||SAFE||SAFE||N/A||HIGH||N/A|
|Naomi Smalls||1||8||3||5, 7, 9||0||0||BTM2||HIGH||N/A||WIN||N/A|
|2||10, 11||4||3, 4, 5, 9||0||0||N/A||N/A||BTM3||N/A|
|Kandy Zyanide||3||9, 10, 11||1||4||1||0||N/A||N/A||ELIM||WIN|
|Brooke Lynn Hytes||11
|3||1, 5, 11||2||8, 12||3||1||WIN||BTM2||WIN||WIN||HIGH|
|Divina De Campo||UK1
|3||3, 5, 7||0||N/A||2||0||WIN||LOW||N/A||WIN||N/A|
|Gigi Goode||4||4, 6, 7, 12||0||N/A||3||0||N/A||WIN||WIN||SAFE||WIN|
|1||3||3||5, 6, 7||1||0||WIN||HIGH||HIGH||N/A||N/A|
|Miz Cracker||3||4, 6, 7||1||5||0||1||SAFE||LOW||TOP||N/A||N/A|
|3||1, 4, 6||2||8, 9||0||0||WIN
- With the exception of Alaska, Peppermint, Kameron Michaels, Naomi Smalls (All Stars 4) and Crystal Methyd, all runners-up won their first main challenge within the 1st 7 weeks of competition.
- With the exception of Kameron Michaels and Naomi Smalls (All Stars 4) all runners-up did not place in the Bottom 2 more than two times.
- With the exception of Raven (twice) Detox, Katya, Kennedy Davenport, Eureka, and Monique Heart, all runners-up who placed in the Bottom 2 did not do so until at least the 4th week of competition.
- With the exception of Alaska, all runners-up won less than 3 mini-challenges.
- With the exception of Manila Luzon, Phi Phi O'Hara, Alaska, Adore Delano, Ginger Minj, Naomi Smalls (Season 8), and Brooke Lynn Hytes, all runners-up were never team captains.
- With the exception of Brooke Lynn Hytes, and Gigi Goode, all runners-up have fewer (or equal) main challenge wins than the winner of the season.
|Accomplishment||Chance of Not Placing in Top 3||Chance of Placing in Top 3||Chance of Becoming a Runner-Up Overall||Chance of Placing as Runner-up Once in Top 3||Chance of Winning Once in Top 3||Chance of Winning the Entire Season Overall|
|Never Placing in Bottom 2||0/8 (0%)||8/8
|5/8 (63%)||5/8 (63%)||3/8||3/8|
|Placing Once in Bottom 2 & Not Being Eliminated||0/10 (0%)||10/10 (100%)||5/10 (50%)||5/10 (50%)||5/10 (50%)||5/10 (50%)|
|Placing Twice in Bottom 2 & Not Being Eliminated||0/5 (0%)||5/5 (100%)||5/5 (100%)||5/5 (100%)||0/5 (0%)||0/5 (0%)|
|Placing Three Times in Bottom 2 & Not Being Eliminated||0/2 (0%)||2/2 (100%)||2/2 (100%)||2/2 (100%)||0/2 (0%)||0/2 (0%)|
|Winning the 1st Main Challenge of the Season||2/9 (22%)||7/9 (78%)||3/9 (33%)||3/7 (43%)||4/7 (57%)||4/9 (44%)|
|Winning no Main Challenges||51/52 (98%)||1/52 (2%)||1/52 (2%)||1/1 (100%)||0/1 (0%)||0/52 (0%)|
|Winning only 1 Main Challenge||19/22 (86%)||3/22 (11%)||3/22 (11%)||3/3 (100%)||0/3 (0%)||0/22 (0%)|
|Winning 2 Main Challenges||7/17 (41%)||10/17 (59%)||8/17 (47%)||8/10 (80%)||2/10 (20%)||2/17 (12%)|
|Winning 3 Main Challenges||0/9 (0%)||9/9 (100%)||4/9 (44%)||4/9 (44%)||5/9 (56%)||5/9 (56%)|
|Winning 4 Main Challenges||0/2 (0%)||2/2 (100%)||1/2 (50%)||1/2 (50%)||1/2 (50%)||1/2 (50%)|
|Being The 1st To Win 2 Main Challenges||3/8 (38%)||5/8 (62%)||1/8 (12%)||1/5 (20%)||4/5 (80%)||4/8 (50%)|
|Winning The Snatch Game||4/8 (50%)||4/8 (50%)||2/8 (25%)||2/4 (50%)||2/4 (50%)||2/8 (25%)|
|Winning Team Captain||28/36 (78%)||8/36 (22%)||7/36 (19%)||7/8 (88%)||1/8 (12%)||1/36 (3%)|
Placing in the Bottom Two
Oddly, to place as a top 3 finalist, a contestant has a better chance if they have 0 to 1 bottom two placings, yet to win the competition, a contestant has a better chance if they have only one bottom 2 placing. No contestant has ever won the entire season with more than one bottom 2 placing (excluding all stars).
Never Placing in the Bottom 2
Historically, every contestant to have never once placed in the bottom 2 on any episode has gone on to place as a top 3 finalist. Nina Flowers of Season 1, Tyra Sanchez of Season 2, Alaska of Season 5, Courtney Act & Bianca Del Rio of Season 6, Violet Chachki of Season 7, Kim Chi of Season 8, Sasha Velour of Season 9, Aquaria of Season 10, Divina De Campo of UK Season 1 and Gigi Goode of Season 12 have all accomplished this feat, with Tyra Sanchez, Bianca Del Rio, Violet Chachki, Sasha Velour, Aquaria, and Envy Peru to be the only Season Winners to have done so. Never placing in the bottom 2 guarantees a contestant a spot in the top 3. Based on this statistic alone, a contestant with zero Bottom 2 placings has a 5/9 chance of winning the crown, and a 4/9 chance of placing into the Top 3 without winning the title.
Placing Once in the Bottom 2
Aside from Tyra Sanchez, Bianca Del Rio, Violet Chachki, Sasha Velour and Aquaria who won their seasons without ever once placing in the Bottom 2 during any episode, every other Season Winner has placed in the Bottom 2 at least once. Although it is possible to win the competition with one Bottom 2 placing, or even place as a Top 3 finalist with two Bottom 2 placings, no contestant has ever won the competition with 2 or more bottom 2 placings. Any contestant to have placed in the Bottom 2 two or more times has an a 0% chance of winning the season.
Placing Twice in the Bottom 2
Rebecca Glasscock of Season 1, Raven of Season 2, Adore Delano of Season 6, Ginger Minj & Pearl of Season 7, Peppermint of Season 9, Eureka O'Hara of Season 10, and are the only contestants to place in the top 3 with two Bottom 2 placings each. Trixie Mattel, winner of All Stars 3 and Monet X Change, winner of All Stars 4 are the only winners with two Bottom 2 placings as of now. Although it is possible to place as a top 3 finalist with two Bottom 2 placings, the chances of winning the competition are very very very low.
Placing 3 Times in the Bottom 2
Jujubee of Season 2, Alexis Mateo of Season 3 & Kameron Michaels of Season 10 are the only three contestants ever to place in the top 3 with a total of three bottom 2 placings each. Both contestants ranked 3rd in the competition. Having three bottom 2 placings puts the chances of winning the season at 0%.
Winning Main Challenges
Statistically, in order to win the entire season, a contestant must win at least 2 main challenges. However winning the most main challenges over every other contestant does not guarantee that a contestant will win the entire season.
Winning the 1st Main Challenge
With the exception of Morgan McMichaels of Season 2, BenDeLaCreme of Season 6, Nina Bo'Nina Brown of Season 9, Mayhem Miller of Season 10, Widow Von'Du of Season 12, and zevery contestant who's won the very first main challenge of their season has gone on to place in the top 3. Season winners Raja, Sharon Needles, Bianca Del Rio, Violet Chachki, and Jaida Essence Hall all won the first main challenges of their season (Bianca and Jaida being the first winners on the first episodes they appeared on). Based on this statistic alone, a contestant who has won the first main challenge of their season has a strong chance of winning the season with a 4/9 chance of winning the competition and a 6/9 chance of at least placing in the top 3.
Winning No Main Challenges
So far, Jujubee of Season 2 and Miss Abby OMG are the only contestants in Drag Race history to place as a top 3/top 4 finalist without winning a single main challenge. This is a very rare achievement which so far has never been duplicated on the same region's show. Although not impossible, the chances of placing in the top 3 without winning a main challenge are very low, while the chances of winning the season are zero, both having been eliminated by the judges prior to the final lip sync.
Winning 1 Main Challenge
With the exception of finalists Nina Flowers, & Rebecca Glasscock from Season 1, Jujubee from Season 2, Naomi Smalls from Season 8, Peppermint of Season 9, Kameron Michaels of Season 10, Crystal Methyd of Season 12, and Janey Jacké, Miss Abby OMG, and Ma'Ma Queen of Drag Race Holland Season 1, every top 3/top finalist has won at least 2 main challenges. Winning only one Main Challenge means a contestant has a 2/24 chance of placing as a finalist and a 0% chance of winning the crown.
Winning 2 Main Challenges
Every single Season winner with the exception of Yvie Oddly in Drag Race history so far has won at least 2 Main Challenges (Raja, Bianca Del Rio, Violet Chachki, Bob The Drag Queen, Aquaria and Jaida Essence Hall have each won 3, while Sharon Needles and Alaska have won 4), meaning that in order to win the entire season, a contestant statistically needs to have won at least 2 main challenges.
With the exception of Shangela of Season 3, Latrice Royale of Season 4, BenDeLaCreme of Season 6, Max, Kennedy Davenport, and Katya of Season 7, most contestants who've won 2 main challenges have gone to place in the top 3. With the exception of Nina Flowers, Rebecca Glasscock, Naomi Smalls, Peppermint and Kameron Michaels who won only one Main Challenge, and Jujubee - who won no main challenges, every top 3 finalist afterwards has won at least 2 main challenges. Out of eight Season Winners, three have won with only two Main Challenge wins, making it a 3/8 chance that the winner will have had only 2 Main Challenge wins.
Winning 3 Main Challenges
So far, every single contestant who has won 3 main challenges has gone on to place as a top 3 finalist. Out of all twelve Season Winners so far, six of them where crowned after winning three Main Challenges (Tyra Sanchez, Raja, Bianca Del Rio, Violet Chachki, Bob The Drag Queen, Aquaria, The Vivienne and Jaida Essence Hall). Sharon Needles is the only Season winner to have won more than three with four main challenge wins. Due to these statistics, any contestant who's won 3 main challenges is guaranteed a spot in the top 3, and has a 1/2 chance of being crowned "America's Next Drag Superstar".
Winning the "Snatch Game" Challenge
So far, four season winners won the Snatch Game Challenge: Jinkx Monsoon of Season 5, Bob The Drag Queen from Season 8, Aquaria of Season 10, and The Vivienne of UK Season 1, while Chad Michaels of Season 4, Ginger Minj of Season 7, Silky Nutmeg Ganache of Season 11, Baga Chipz of UK Season 1, and Gigi Goode of Season 12 are the only Snatch Game winners to place in the top 3 without winning the crown. Other Snatch Game winners such as Tatianna, Stacy Layne Matthews, BenDeLaCreme, Kennedy Davenport, and Alexis Michelle did not even crack the top 3, making a 2/9 chance that a Snatch Game winner will take the crown. Oddly, with the exception of Pandora Boxx of Season 2, Willam of Season 4, Katya of Season 7, Derrick Barry and Thorgy Thor of Season 8, Nina Bo'Nina Brown of Season 9, Monét X Change of Season 10, Nina West and Shuga Cain of Season 11, Blu Hydrangea of UK Season 1 and Jackie Cox of Season 12, most contestants who did very well during the Snatch Game without actually winning the challenge have made it into the top 3. Winning the Snatch Game gives a queen a 1/2 chance of making the top 3. Based on these statistics, although winning the Snatch Game is not a good indication for winning the entire season, doing well in the Snatch Game without winning the challenge is a very good indication that a contestant will go far in the competition and may even place in the top 3.
Most Season winners have won at least one mini-challenge but no season winner has won more than two mini-challenges. Although winning a mini-challenge is meant to give a contestant an advantage during the main challenge, historically, it usually instead has an adverse effect, with many mini-challenge winners and team captains placing in the bottom 2 on the same episode where they won the mini-challenge due to the added responsibility of managing their group.
Winning The Role of Team Captain
So far, Jinkx Monsoon, The Vivienne, Trinity The Tuck, Jaida Essence Hall, Shea Couleé, Priyanka, and Envy Peru are the only season winners to have been Team Captain. In general, winning the role of Team Captain is not that favorable for winning the title of "America's Next Drag Superstar".